Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Bob Brinker's Latest Stock Market Views

Bob Brinker's October 28, 2007 Moneytalk discussion about the Stock Market. (Last weekend Bill Flanagan did Moneytalk.)
Excerpt from Bob Brinker's opening monologue:
"Well, another good week in the stock market and S&P 500 trading just 1.9% below its all time historic record high. The S&P500 sitting in at the 1535 level as we speak and acting very, very nicely. We like to see the kind of a thing that we saw the week before last where we had just a momentary shake-out – one big down day. People running for the windows; running for the exits; panicking for a few hours – this is a wonderful sight for investors, because this is how you rid the market of people who should not be in the market -- people who don’t understand the words of J.P. Morgan. You remember the words of J.P., quote: ‘stocks tend to fluctuate’ unquote – the wise words of J. P. Morgan. And it’s true that stocks tend to fluctuate and so when you run into people who make a big deal out of small potatoes – short term fluctuations, well, they don’t belong in the market in the first place. They don’t understand what it means to invest in the stock market. After all if they did understand, they wouldn’t be making a big deal about a short-term market fluctuation.”

A week after Bob Brinker made those comments, in the November 5, 2007 issue of Marketimer, Brinker re-iterated that he remains "bullish as we move toward the winter season." He sees NO RISK of a cyclical bear "in the months ahead," and the "mid-1400's" buy signal is still in place--with a dollar-cost-average approach recommended for new money above that level.


Anonymous said...

Everytime the S&P 500 tests the old 2000 highs of around 1550 it fails. It's now tested these highs three times. I continue to assert that Brinker's original secular bear market call remains valid and intact. Until the old highs are convincingly taken out the secular bear remains in place. Brinker is sticking to his bullish guns and he's going to get burned just as he did back in 1987.


Honeybee said...


You are absolutely correct according to Brinker's own description of when a secular bear market ends.

Brinker has always said that the S&P 500 needed to exceed its March 2000 high by 10%, otherwise the secular bear was "intact."
Of course, he changed his tune almost immediately after the Dow and S&P 500 broke through the March 2000 highs in July, 2007
Kirk Lindstrom has shown that there has not been a secular change since the 1982 secular bull began.
BTW: You think that Brinker is missing a major crash in the market similar to 1987? Yikes! 8^)