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Saturday, December 29, 2007

Bob Brinker and Bill Flanagan Market Commentary

Bill Flanagan filled in for Brinker on Moneytalk today, so it will be next year before we get an opportunity to hear Bob Brinker's 2007 stock market wrap-up -- if he decides to give one.
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Here is an excerpt from Bill Flanagan's opening monologue today:

“Although it doesn’t look like the biggest cloud on Wall Street is about to dissipate easily or quickly. That being of course the biggest credit crisis brought on by the sub-prime mess. Nonetheless, here we are at the end of the year and it wasn’t all that bad all things considered. The Dow Jones Industrials with Monday left, year to date change, 7.24% to the good; S&P 500 4.24%; Nasdaq 100 19.93%; Russell 2000 off 2%; Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 up 4.59%.
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With all the hand-wringing and all the headlines and all the scrambling and all of the worrying -- and let’s face it, the exposure of an extraordinary lack of very simple research on the part of a whole bunch of people, and an indifference I guess to what must have seemed at least to some folks as inevitable, the financials took it on the chin. And along with them an awful lot of homeowners who got sucked into mortgages that should never have been written in the first place. And we’ll have to deal with that mess for quite some time.” ___Bill Flanagan
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Between March, 2003 and June, 2007, Brinker was short-term bullish, intermediate-term bullish, (1-3 years) and long-term (3-20 years) bearish. Reference:
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July 4, 2003 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe that the U.S. stock market entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history is any guide investors will have to wait a very long time before they see that level materially exceeded. However a series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular bear market megatrend." (May, 2006, Brinker wrote: "We estimate the likely duration of this secular bear megatrend within a broad range of eight to twenty years, and we are now into year seven." )

Now it looks like Brinker is short-term bullish, intermediate-term bullish, (1-3 years) and long-term bullish (3-20 years): Reference:
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June 2007 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 Index(1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006.........."
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Since August, 2007, Bob Brinker has been saying that he rates the S&P 500 Index attractive for purchase in the mid-1400’s range, and that he expects the S&P 500 Index to trade in the 1600’s as we move forward.
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And in September, 2007, Bob Brinker said that he expects the S&P 500 Index to register a series of new historic highs into next year.
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Several times, on Moneytalk, Brinker has said that he sees no recesson "on the radar," and that he thinks the bad news bears are totally wrong.

Last time he was on Moneytalk, Brinker also said that he did not see a recession ahead, but rather slow economic growth.

3 comments:

Jeff said...

Thanks for creating this.

Bill may have some expertise about financial markets but when he is on the show he often does not have an answer to callers’ questions.

He often tells callers to look up the answer on the Internet or he has never heard of that before. Is a new call screener needed when Bill subs in for Bob? It is a waste of time when someone calls in for a question and doesn’t get an answer.

Maybe the screener should work with Bill to only allow calls in that Bill can answer.

The general advice Bill gives is okay but he doesn’t really add anything other than very basic advice to dollar cost average and to buy S&P 500 or the total market index and have some exposure to foreign markets. That is fine advice but if that is the only expert advice he is going to give for 3 hours it is a pretty simple show.

What is Bill known for in the financial world?

When Bill is on, I realize I will miss Bob Brinker a lot if he ever retires.

jsmythe said...

My father-in-law once told me that, when he was on vacation, he would make sure his replacement had some, but not all, of the information necessary for the completion of certain tasks. In that manner, when he returned, he looked the part of the 'indispensable employee'. It was a means of job preservation, in a world where information is everything.
If, in fact, his replacement looked ineffectual as compared to him, it would make him look all the much better upon his return. In fact, he would be that 'much sought after' employee, and everyone would exhale a great sigh of relief when he returned, knowing now that things would again get done in their proper way. It's quite simple, really. If you're replacement seems to be inferior, you look all that much better, and people will be hungering for your return. Sound familiar?

Honeybee said...

Happy New Year Jeff and JSmythe,

Thank you for your comments. I agree that Flanagan is not as slick as Bob Brinker when it comes to giving answers to callers. However, to me, he comes across as being sincere in his efforts and really knowing his stuff. Obviously, he has to be very careful when filling in for Brinker not to step on Brinker's schtick.
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Granted, Bob Brinker is an extremely talented entertainer. He has been behind a microphone most of his career. He has a beautiful voice for radio. And if he can't answer the questions that are asked, he will frequently answer a different question. 8^)
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Jeff asked what Flanagan was known for in the financial world.
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Actually, William G. Flanagan has a very impressive background and is a much-published and popular author of several books.

Flanagan has appeared on Lou Dobb's Moneyline, Good Morning America, Today, Fox News and other TV programs. He even had a small part in a Woody Allen movie.
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Granted that Bob Brinker has a wider radio following because of the publicity he has gained from his long-running success as a radio talk-show host.
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But Bill Flanagan, IMO, has accomplished much more than just hawk a monthly newsletter by claiming that he is prescient about what the stock market will do in the future.
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Here's some information about Flanagan's creditials:
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http://www.kensingtonbooks.com/catalog.cfm?dest=itempg&itemid=7096&secid=15&linkon=subsection&linkid=70
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"William G. Flanagan has been a writer and editor for Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, Esquire, and New York. He hosted The Bill Flanagan Show on WABC Radio (a money call-in show) and acts as substitute host for Bob Brinker on Moneytalk, which is carried by over 200 radio stations nationally. He appeared regularly on Lou Dobbs’s Moneyline and has appeared on Good Morning America, Fox News, and other national and local shows. He also had a bit part in the Woody Allen film, Radio Days. He lives in New York."
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And as co-author here:
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http://www.randomhouse.com/doubleday/currency/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9780385517096
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"WILLIAM G. FLANAGAN has been a writer and editor at Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, Esquire, and New York magazine. His last book was Dirty Rotten CEOs (Citadel)."