Monday, January 21, 2008

Brinker's Clues Seem to be Missing

Brinker doesn't have a CLUE what the market will do in the future. When it appears that he has made a correct call, it can just as easily be attributed to sheer luck. He has been wrong on his market analysis for years now, but he keeps it under the radar, plays two sides of the street or simply makes it go away.
He has been 100% bullish since he declared the end of a (non-existent) secular bear back in June, 2007.
He predicted the S&P would make new highs and reach into the "1600's" since last August (Mid-1600's in October and November).
Several times, he said that the mid-1400's was "attractive for purchase." Those who did sink a chunk of new money in at the 1450, 1460, 1470 level have lost a BUNDLE.
January 6th, he said the stock market was "favorable as we enter 2008."
Now he says it's "foggy out there." That FOG sure did roll in fast, in light of how recently he seemed to have a clear view of how "wrong" the bad news bears supposedly were... LOL!
Now he is saying that he didn't "expect" the market to drop 15%. DUH!
He blames it on Bernanke and acts like what Bernanke was doing was a big newsflash to him--NOT! He has been bashing Bernanke since he first became Fed Chair.
However, you can take comfort in knowing that on Saturday, Brinker said that he did not expect a 50% decline--but do it at your own risk! What he "expects" seems to be totally unreliable as a guide to market-timing (even IF you believe it can be done).
IMO, Brinker's Moneytalk scam is to say just enough about the stock market to sell newsletters to gullible listeners, but here again is some of what he said Saturday--for what it's worth: “That’s not my opinion right now. I think there’s lots of fog out there right now. I think there’s very low visibility out there right now, and I think that low visibility has been caused by all of the things we’ve been seeing over the past several weeks—especially the last week……but it has not been my view that we would be looking to run for the hills and expecting the stock market to go down 50%. That has not been my view, and that is what it went down earlier in the decade......"


jumpnjoey said...

Write downs = PEs contracting.

Contracting PEs = lower stock prices.

Econ 101. Where is the fog?

rdk573 said...

It has become apparent that BB has no clue of what’s going on in today’s economic environment. After analyzing the situation, it is clear that BB has become a victim of his own success. …Get a few predictions right, and you think your models (ie. marketimer) are foolproof, infallible, a bible for him and others to reference and worship by... And the worse sin of all he has decided to take himself seriously …..

Now, reality has set in and his predictions are shown to be wrong… Instead of questioning his model or his interpretations of his model, he lashes out and blames others (Bernake and Co) for his predictions not coming true, resorts to doublespeak and contradictions. Consider the following:

• States that our economy is in a severe slowdown for the first two quarters of 2008, and claims , disingenuously I might add, that he has warned of it. Yet as of November of 2007, while he mentions the possibility of slower growth, he never warns of the severity of the slowdown that we are now experiencing
• Claims that the interest rates have no bearing on the price of oil…Oh really, so how come bob the dollar has tanked since the fed has started lowering interest rates and the corresponding price of commodities such as oil and gold have skyrocketed.. Think the two are related ??? (notice BB has never addressed the value of the dollar and the price of commodities in his commentary…If Bob cannot logical address an argument, he tends to ignore it)
• Claims the price of oil is not inflationary. But refuses to acknowledge that supply costs always figure in the price a vendor is willing to charge for their product or service. And many producers of products and services use oil in their process (Transportation companies, food manufacturers, etc) If supply costs go up, the price charged most inevitably goes up..

• Blames the FED for the current turmoil in the markets…As others have mentioned, these facts have always been out there.. Why has your timing model not picked up on them/ and why, despite the FED’s previous actions have you been a screaming bull ????
• Can see no reason why the FED has not made an emergency rate cut before the January 30th meeting. Discounts the inflation arguments. And has even said on his Sunday show that since the price of housing has recently declined that this is disinflationary…. Say what ???…Its interesting that when the price of housing was going thru the roof, he never mentioned this as being inflationary….

Now BB has added another objective to the FED’s mission…make BB’s stock market predictions come true… what a pompous A$$^&*()…

Its time to admit BB, that you FU&*( up..