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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Brinker's Most Recent Stock Market Comments

Brinker is on record saying that anyone who is bothered by a 10% correction may not be suited for investing in the stock market. It will be interesting to hear what he has to say about a 15-20% correction today--if he is on the air.
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Almost certainly, Brinker won't recommend selling into this kind of weakness. Take a look at this:
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DJIA 12099.3 (14.8%)
S&P500 1325.19 (15.9%)
NASDAQ 2340.02 (18.2%)
R2000 673.18 (21.4%)
QQQQ 45.35 (17.7%)
VTI 130.57 (16.6%)
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Here are excerpts from my summary of what Brinker was saying about the stock market the last time he was on Moneytalk (January 5th and 6th):
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STOCK MARKET Saturday, Bob Brinker did not mention any change in his views about the stock market. He considers recent activity nothing but expected "volatility." He offered no forward looking guidance and he did not say when he expected the correction to end.
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However, in the opening monologue, Brinker repeated his usual mantra, which is that those who are worried about a 10% decline may not be suited for investing in the stock market--and he reminded listeners that there has been several recent market corrections.
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One retired caller had 50% in stocks and was worried about the market. Brinker told him that 50% in stocks during retirement is fine in "generic" terms, but went on to say this: "....maybe your risk tolerance just is not such that you can deal with the kind of fluctuation. You know my definition for a bear market is a decline in excess of 20%........So in order for us to be in bear market territory -- by my definitions -- we would have to see the stock market, the S&P trading below 1250."
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Several times on Sunday, Bob Brinker hammered the point that the market was "volatile," and probably would remain volatile for some time to come. After saying that he believed that we are in for a period of very, very slow economic growth in the first and second quarters, but expects a rebound in the second half of 2008, Brinker made this comment: "Now if you study the stock market you know the stock market discounts the future about six to seven months in advance. So if we were to see a recovery in the second half of 2008, following this slow period then the stock market would be in the process of having discounted that as we speak."
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Caller's Followup to Brinker's Recession Reply: “So as of now, your newsletter projections and recommendations hold.”
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Bob Brinker: “Well, we just published, we just published. Today is January 6th, we just published on January 4th. Everything_that_is_in_that_letter, I stand by today. I’m Bob Brinker. This is Moneytalk.”
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1 comment:

Wonder said...

Brinker is blaming the Fed. Surprised?

"Fed does not control the oil prices." He does not seem to understand that oil is priced in USDs. When the Fed cuts; oil prices go up. Duh!!!