The gains from the past year are gone.
People are scared. Just this weekend Bob Brinker said anyone who can't stand a 10% decline should not be in the market. I think he should have widened this to say "anyone who can't stand a 50% decline in the market and know how it will effect your portfolio over the long term should not be in the market until they do." The truth is markets go down and selling causes more selling until a final bottom is made when the last person can't take the pain any more sells. NOBODY can accurately say when or at what market level this will be. Those who stick to their asset allocation, add on the declines and take some profits after some nice gains or new market highs are usually able to do much better over the long term than those who think they can get in at the bottom and out at the top.
If you are worried about holding positions, remember Brinker gave a bulletin to buy any dips under 1380 back in March 2007 AFTER the market was under 1380 and closed at 1390. Later on in the year, he raised this "lump sum buy level" to "mid 1400's." Since then, the maket has offered many opportunities to buy in the mid 1400's and Brinker has reaffirmed that level as good for lump sum rather than dollar cost average many, many times.
On the radio this weekend Brinker said all the funds in his "Marketimer" newsletter are a BUY at last week's higher prices. Remember this includes the Total Stock Market Index and the NASDAQ100 ETF called QQQQ.
- December 24, 2007: "Bob Brinker's Mid 1400's Buying Opportunity"
- December 31, 2007: "Bob Brinker Shadow Stock Market Timing Model Update"
- January 04, 2008 "Brinker's 60-day Moving Average Put/Call Ratio Indicator Remains Bullish"