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Thursday, January 24, 2008

NOW If Market Rallies, Brinker Will "Look Pretty Silly"

So far, Bob Brinker hasn't found the bottom of this "correction" and has NOT issued a new "all-in" buy signal. However, he still recommends dollar-cost-averaging.

On Kirk's Facebook Bob Brinker Forum, James Kenney wrote:
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Jan 23, 2008 at 1:58 PM.
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"When I heard about Brinker's "e-alert" I thought at first he would be proclaiming this major correction had now presented us with a "gift horse" buying opportunity and saying to buy the market on weakness below 1300. But no he actually leaned more to the bearish side by telling subscribers to DCA into the market the mid-1400s on down he had previously told subscribers they should be more aggressively buying.
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Should the market stage a significant rally from here he's gone to look pretty silly with his market timing advice. On the other hand if the rout continues and we end up in a clear cyclical bear market he would have failed to get his subscribers even partially out. What is surprising is not that Bob's market timing leaves a lot to be desired but that this time Bob put himself in a position of looking foolish no matter what happens. The old master of double speak and spin seems to be lossing his touch."
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14 comments:

Dan said...

Mr. Brinker's career is over. He should retire before he gives more of his "advice" and ends up costing even more people their life savings.

princepro110 said...

If anyone can decipher what Bob is saying please let us know. My major question is when he has his models fully invested where does all this "sideline" money come from on his average subscriber?

The Wall Street experts are telling the mob to run the course keeping up the good face..........while going to cash with their own stake!

yaetmo said...

The following is the 2007 winning entry from an annual contest at Texas A&M University calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term.

This year's term: "Political Correctness"

"Political Correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical, liberal minority and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end."

Honeybee said...

Hi Dan,
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It would certainly be nice if ABC would replace Brinker with someone who would be willing to openly and honestly discuss the stock market.

If Brinker is going to continue to turn the program into a political-talk, he needs to clearly state where he is "coming from," and allow opposing viewpoints on the air occasionally.

(Maybe he wants to be another Rush? LOL!)

But I sincerely doubt that this latest expose' of his dangerous advice will end his career.

He's gotten away with much worse, spun his way out of it, covered it up, and reaped a whole new batch of subscribers.
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Six hours of Moneytalk weekly is a powerful advertising media for Bob Brinker.
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Honeybee said...

Princepro110 said: "My major question is when he has his models fully invested where does all this "sideline" money come from on his average subscriber?"
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Now there you have zeroed in on the $64million question. 8^)

Brinker uses these (almost totally) USELESS "buying opportunites" and "gift-horses" as huge marketing ploys in order to keep his minions and subscribers singing his praises if the market cooperates.

(Of course, when the market doesn't cooperate with his useless schtick, he will never mention it.)

Never mind that Brinker is already recommending being 100% invested--PLUS, dollar-cost-averaging in new money.

I suppose it's possible that someone could inherit a bundle, retire and recieve a lump sum, sell real estate or rob a bank. 8^)

But pity the poor person who sunk a bundle of "new money" into the market on Brinker's August, September, October, November, December, 2007 and January, 2008 "all-in buy signal" in the "mid-1400's range."

Wonder how they've been sleeping lately?

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Honeybee said...

Thanks Yaetmo! That is perfectly said.

I often feel like I am trying to do that every time I make an effort to warn people about a certain "SHARK" lurking out there trying to deceptively take a bite out of their wallets.

This "shark" isn't in the water, but on the airwaves. 8^)

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Honeybee said...

Burt...I know who you are, I know what your agenda is and I will not allow it to spoil my Blog.

However, some of what you write shows that you have a sense of humor which occasionally tries to rear it's head. Why not go for that as you tell us what you think about Bob Brinker.

Just to remind you, Bob Brinker is the topic. Yaetmo's post is on topic. IMO. 8^)

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Dan said...

I got in around 1450 but then I quickly got out when I saw the market dropping and hearing all the bad news. Lost a little with that trade - but better than losing a lot. At least I had enough sense to put in a stop unlike Brinker has rarely if ever done for his followers. After the QQQ trade that BrinKer recommended I wasn't going to make the same mistake twice.

Take BriNker with a grain of salt -he likes to hear himself proclaim on the radio - a strong opinionated, egotistical, rude fortune teller with a broken "stOCk MarKEt TIMing MoDEL". Follow BrinKer at your own financial risk.

Jody said...

Brinker still thinks that the market is fairly valued. (forward P/E around 15) If he were correct about that, then his call to wait for a bottom now would be the right one. But it isn't, and he isn't. That's why the market started tanking after October 9, and why Brinker hasn't realized it yet.

Dan said...

I really think BrinKer has lost his mind. He tells his subscribers that he is working to identify a bottom. SO WHAT IF HE DOES, WHAT WILL HE THEN TELL HIS SUBSCRIBERS TO DO? He has everyone in 100% at his initial buy in March 2003 and then again telling everyone to buy in at 1450 and on top of all that to dollar cost average in. SO AGAIN WHAT IF HE IDENTIFIES A BOTTOM WHAT WILL HE TELL HIS FOLLOWERS - BUY IN WITH WHAT?

The e-alert he recently sent out sends a message and that is that BrinKer is either on drugs, booze or perhaps he really has lost his mind.

Jody said...

Hi Dan,

I'll be the first to admit that I no longer take Brinker's recommendations as Gospel. I think he's wrong this time, but I don't think he's lost his mind. He didn't see a couple of technical signals in late 2007, and he's too focussed on future earnings right now. That's a blind spot - not insanity.

Since he truly believes (wrongly) that a bottom could form any day, he can't advise anyone to sell now, otherwise he might end up issuing the "sell" signal at the market bottom, and that would be insane.

Obviously I understand the frustration of his subscribers who are following him and watching their investments go down. That's the problem with market-timing: you can be right 80% or 90% of the time, but if the rare bad call happens at the wrong time then it nullifies all of the good ones.

princepro110 said...

I curious if Brinker explain the Feds decision this week and forecast next weeks meeeting as:

#1- Panic( duped) to the fall in the Euro markets......as we now know prompted by SocGen selling to cover the 7.1 billion loss by a rogue trader. No rate cut Wed.

#2- Concern over the credit default swaps that have trillions guaranteed by banks and hedge funds . The Fed wants the financial institutions to have monies to cover this deep problem that may take over a year to be out of and need another 50 basis point cut on top of 75 this week.


See if Bob gets it today or he talks about next weeks Super Bowl. The market ended up for the week so Flanagan should be at his "Buy & Hold" home.

Dan said...

jody
What makes you think BrinKer would issue a sell signal at his estimated market bottom when he never issued one for his QQQ trade that started out at 75 and then plummeted all the way into the ~ 23dollar range?

He will never issue a sell signal on his S&P 1500 buy in at the mid 1400 range - instead he will sweep it under the carpet like he always does and keep pumping his worthless newsletter.

To know what he will do just look at his past behavior.

One word describes it - Despicable

Jody said...

Dan,

You're absolutely right about the QQQ debacle. That should have raised a cautionary flag for anyone who decided to follow his subsequent advice.

But he *did* issue an S&P sell signal in 2000 and an S&P buy signal in 2003. So, again, he's not completely clueless.

However, this time around I don't think he'll be able to hide his mistake future subscribers. QQQ was only a partial position in 2000, with even his "aggressive" portfolio still hanging on to some cash. But today he's 100% in stocks, and everything is falling. If he sweeps these stock fund trades under the carpet, as you put it, then he's got nothing left to show off in MarketTimer except his "fixed income" portfolio.