Saturday, January 26, 2008

Octavian Sez

Pen-name, Octavian, a long time Brinker-supporter, defends Brinker's latest prognostications. I replied to him, and if he has follow-up, in all fairness I will also post that. I report--you decide:

(BTW, this is not the same Octavian that occasionally posts comments here--that person is a "fake." The "real" Octavian bought me a drink at Sam's Town in Vegas last year.) 8^)
Octavian/Dija said:

"Bob was man enough to admit that the market was fooling him, and therefore he was canceling his 1450 buy signal and going back to a DCA approach while he reevaluates. And yet all you people want to do is criticize him. If he had remained silent on the 1450 buy signal, you would have bashed him for that. But he spoke up about it, and you STILL bashed him........Surely you all realize how ridiculous you are."
Honeybee replied:


When you accuse others of "bashing" Bob Brinker for simply discussing what he is selling--which is predicting the direction of the stock market--you are acting as an enabler to aid him in selling a very dangerous and ongoing snake oil.

Brinker "sells" his ability to time the market in advance--not in the rearview mirror. For the most part it can't be done, as many highly respected men, such as Burton Malkiel and John Bogle have said.
And Octavian, as you pointed out, Brinker says he was "fooled" (AGAIN) by the market and has cancelled his mid-1400's buy signal--and has moved to dollar-cost-averaging only. (BTW: It was NOT a 1450 buy level, as you so conveniently said. It was MID-1400's--so logically, it was at least as much as 1470!!!)
Now you say he is "evaluating." Surely YOU see how ridiculous THAT is! As I said, he gave no "further guidance" as to when he thought the market would bottom. Indeed, he said he was still looking for the "bottom" in this market that "fooled" him. So why in the world would he recommend to continue dollar-cost average new money in until he finds his bottom. Of course, we know that is exactly what he also did between January, 2000 and March, 2003 as the S&P dropped precipitously.
Why don't you have a bit of compassion for all the people who actually took the advice they paid him for when they subscribed to Marketimer and have lost a BUNDLE this month because Brinker was "fooled" again and is now "re-evaluating."
What about the callers I've heard on Moneytalk in the past couple of months who said they were new subscribers and were busy going all-in to Brinker's "model portfolios?"
What about those poor saps who actually came in to a bundle of new money and sunk it ALL into the stock market because Brinker has been saying every month since last August that the MID-1400's was a very good buying opportunity?
Anyone that is 100% invested, including any new money that they may have come in to, is down about 8% on the Dow, 9% on the S&P, and about 12% on the Nasdaq--in ONE MONTH.
Do you want to know how some subscribers are treated when they call Brinker's number and ask for guidance? They are hung up on...



yaetmo said...

Two Brinker Bots were sitting down for a break in their soon-to-be-open Brinker Investment Store. As yet, the store wasn't ready, with only a few shelves set up.

One said to the other, "I bet any minute now some person is
going to walk by, put his face to the window and ask what we're selling."

No sooner were the words out of his mouth when, sure enough, a curious lady walked to the window, had a peek, and in a thick southern accent asked, "What are you selling' here?"

One of the men replied sarcastically, "We're selling arse-holes."

Without skipping a beat, the lady said, "You are doing well... only two left!"

Honeybee said...

Yaetmo, to quote our favorite Pig: