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Friday, January 11, 2008

What About Bob's Market-Timing Views?

Bob Brinker is now 100% bullish--short-term, intermediate-term and long-term. All of his Model Portfolios are 100% invested.
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January 5th, 2007, on Moneytalk, Brinker said that he rated all Model Portfolio mutual funds a "buy."
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March, 2003, Brinker issued a buy-signal, recommending the return "all available cash reserves" to the market and he became, short-term and intermediate-term bullish.
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(At that time, his recommended cash reserves level was 65%, minus up to 50% of that 65%, which he had told subscribers to buy QQQ with in October, 2000.)
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However, in March, 2003, when he issued that buy signal, Brinker was not long-term bullish. He said that in his view, the market had entered a "secular bear megatrend" in March, 2000.
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He held that view until June, 2007, when he wrote that the secular bear market had ended the previous year, in June, 2006.
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(He has never told Moneytalk listeners about this change of market- timing outlook.)
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In March, 2007, Brinker's invest-all-new-money level was at "1380 or lower."
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In August, 2007, Brinker raised that level to the "MID-1400's" range."
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Since Brinker raised his buy signal to the "MID-1400's," the S&P 500 has closed very near the previous level of 1380 several times and today it closed at 1401.
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1 comment:

Kirk said...

My favorite source of quotes is

Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History

Scroll down for:

May 6, 2003 Marketimer: "In order to maximize upside potential, we recommend against chasing rallies in order to invest new money. (The market rallied straight up without a bear to set a new S&P 500 record in June 2007!) In the event another test of the area of the bear market lows occurs below the 810 price level for the Standard and Poor's 500 index, we would regard such weakness as an additional buying opportunity. Alternatively, a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach during periods of stock market weakness allows for investment into the market, keeping in mind the market may well remain volatile in the months ahead." (S&P500 = 916.92 & DJIA = 8480.09)

and he sure was not very bullish in June 2003 after the market was up a little bit....(compared to today's levls!)

June 2003 Marketimer: ".....we believe that the U.S. stock market entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history is any guide investors will have to wait a very long time before they see that level materially exceeded. However a series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular bear market megatrend. ... We are not enthusiastic about investing new money into the market during period of strength, although a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach is acceptable for those with a tolerance for further stock market volatility."