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Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Where's the Bottom?

Brinker is on record saying that anyone who is bothered by a 10% correction may not be suited for investing in the stock market.
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Last weekend, Brinker said that he was not expecting the 15% decline in the market. Well, if he wasn't expecting that, was he expecting the almost 500 point drop this morning?
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As I have said before, he was completely blind-sided by this whole correction. He went into it as bullish as I've ever seen him in over 20 years.
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Brinker has never recommended selling into weakness.
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Here are excerpts from my summary of Moneytalk from January 5th and 6th. It's easy to see that he is not at all alarmed or expecting what the market has done since then:
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STOCK MARKET Bob Brinker did not mention any change in his views about the stock market. He considers recent activity nothing but expected "volatility." He offered no forward looking guidance and he did not say when he expected the correction to end.
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However, in the opening monologue, Brinker repeated his usual mantra, which is that those who are worried about a 10% decline may not be suited for investing in the stock market--and he reminded listeners that there has been several recent market corrections.
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One retired caller had 50% in stocks and was worried about the market. Brinker told him that 50% in stocks during retirement is fine in "generic" terms, but went on to say this: "....maybe your risk tolerance just is not such that you can deal with the kind of fluctuation. You know my definition for a bear market is a decline in excess of 20%........So in order for us to be in bear market territory -- by my definitions -- we would have to see the stock market, the S&P trading below 1250."
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Brinker's latest "attractive for purchase" level was way up there at the "MID-1400's" level. Obviously that it MOOT, MOOT, MOOT!
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As of this past weekend, he said that he stood by what he wrote in the January Marketimer. In it, he recommends dollar-cost-averaging into the market.
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So where does Brinker think the bottom of this will be? Is this a "gift-horse" or "MOABO"? I submit that he doesn't have a clue and that he would agree with me.
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9 comments:

SB said...

I wonder if the special subscriber message posted to Bob's website this morning is "I'm sorry."

SB said...

In the above post, I should have mentioned the Markettime subcriber message posted on Sat evening.

Honeybee said...

Octavian-imp,

You are here to cause trouble--please go away. I will delete all of your comments.

I said, and I will repeat it:

Anyone who violates Brinker's copyrights here will be reported to Mr. Brinker and to Google. I will leave the posts, temporarily, for evidence.

Mr. Brinker does not take kindly to copyright violations, so I think he needs to know IF it happens again here.

chgobob said...

When you talk to Mr. Brinker, be sure to tell him that you are tacking on a surcharge to his subscription price of Marketimer too.

Tom said...

The key for me will be if we see a close of the S&P 20% down from the its closing high. As reported here

http://www.cxoadvisory.com

where you then click on Site Hot Spots / Bob Brinker's Market Timing

on the right (I couldn't post a direct link that would work)

Brinker is claimed to have said in mid-November that "there is no risk of a cyclical bear market ... in the months ahead."

If there IS a 20% decline at some point, is there any way he could possibly argue it away?

Pig said...

DUH!

Another IMP attack! What a shame when they have to resort to such silly tactics.

I guess that happens when the emperor is completely clueless, and they need to change the subject. How can you defend a charlatan anymore?

Honeybee said...

Note to the person who posted as ChgoBob!

I know that you are not the real Chgobob from the now defunct Suite101 site.

Chgobob is a fine gentleman with an unmatched sense of humor--shoes that YOU don't stand a chance of imitating. (Sorry about the mixed metaphor.)
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Please choose a different handle to post your comments with here from now on, or no matter what you post, I will delete it.

I DETEST imping and deliberate deception, and will not allow it on my Blog when I am aware of it happening.
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Honeybee said...

Hi Tom,

Bob Brinker said in the November, 2007 Marketimer, Page 1; Paragraph 1:

"We continue to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 Index) in the months ahead."
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But Tom, the important thing to remember is that for the past SIX MONTHS, he has advised his subscribers to put all new, available stock market money into the market at the mid-1400's range on the S&P.

So even if we don't have the full 20% decline, that doesn't mean that he has been correct in his stock market analysis and predictions.

The proof of the pudding is already in...IMHO. 8^)
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Tom said...

Honeybee,

Agreed.

For those who put money in the stock market in the mid 1400s, where do you admit you were wrong? Where does the stop loss go? Isn't there ALWAYS the possibility that something happens that the "stock market timing model" doesn't allow for? If things don't work out I guess you are just expected to "hold for future recovery."