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Friday, February 8, 2008

Bob Brinker's Market-Timing

Bob Brinker's Bungled Market-timing

Jumpnjoey left this comment on the previous thread: "S&P 500 closed at the same price it was on 26 Sep 06. 16 months worth of gains - bye bye. "

Hi Jumpnjoey,
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According to Bob Brinker, the stock market has been in a “secular bull” trend since June, 2006.
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Between January, 2000 and June, 2007, Brinker claimed that the stock market was in a “secular bear megatrend” (In June, 2007, he retroactively declared the secular bear megatrend had ended as of June, 2006 -- oops).
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In August 2007, Bob Brinker raised his buy level for all new money to the “mid-1400’s range."
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He was 100% bullish throughout 2007 (seemingly more so as the year progressed), and in the January, 2008 issue of Marketimer, he said this:
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January 4, 2008, Page Three, Paragraph One: (S&P 1468): “In every case, despite dire warnings from the bad news bears, subscribers who used these corrections as buying opportunities were on the right side of the market."
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After the market dropped over 15% in January, on Moneytalk, Brinker said that it was more than he had "expected." He removed the buy in the "mid-1400's range" signal, and now recommends only dollar-cost-averaging new money into the market, and he's supposedly looking for the market bottom.
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Throughout most of 2007, Brinker repeatedly said there was no chance of a recession or a bear market correction.
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Now he thinks that it may be the end of 2008 or into 2009 before we see any new highs. This is quite a change for him because he was repeatedly predicting new highs during the last half of 2007.

He has also changed his recession views from "zero chance"of one happening, to yes, there is a chance of one after all, albeit, a mild and brief one -- during the first half of 2008.

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15 comments:

Dan said...

Mr. Bob Brinker is simply amazing isn't he?

Honeybee said...

Hi Dan,

I think the man is a genius.

Who else could sell snake oil on an on-going basis, while leaving himself an escape hatch to hark back to when the market goes against him.

Sheer genius...8^)

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jumpnjoey said...

Read it and weep:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=2y

If he was a "Markettimer" there was a lot of tasty gains to be had and he the bad thing is he only plays the long side.

Dan said...

Honeybee - He (the great one) should retire now before he gets himself into an even bigger PIcKle (and lots others too) by not admitting that He ScREWed up BIg timE! Of course his EGo would never let him do that - oh no he could never admit to himself that he was wrong, oh my goodness that would mean that he was wrong! No no we could not do that now could we. We will just keep blaming it on someone else like Uncle BEN or the FED or Granny Smith or Hillary or or or - oh don't worry "its just a minor correction"...or of course if need be the Great one can just conveniently sweep another one under the carpet - of course we can always use that tactic. Oh and "don't forget to continue to carefully screen all the calls", says Mr BrinKer to his MoneYTalK screener...............we don't want any callers who would bring up the Mid 1400's call or the QQQ call I made at 75 which dipped to ~ 22 and is now only at about 43.

We have to pause now for a break.

"Have you ever wondered how to navigate the markets.........subscribe now to the MarKetTimeR newletter only $185a year...

Honeybee said...

Excellent points, Dan....

Honeybee said...

Note to readers:

Regarding the comment deletions: I would like to assure you that I am not deleting any valid comments or opinions about Bob Brinker.

Please rest assured that the reason I have to delete anything is because some Brinker-supporters who cannot intelligently write about Bob Brinker are copying posts and using imposter ID's to mimic people here in an attempt to shut down valid and interesting replies.

If you read anything here that sounds like the raving of a madman, please know that I will be deleting it ASAP.

These Brinker-supporters are of the opinion that if they harrass me long enough, I will shut down the comments section of my Blog. This type of "censorship" is nothing new to me...

Pig said...

(ID b4Q389fu)

1stly, how many ID's is this fool trying to duplicate today? It's a shame that the other contributors have to put up with such smarmy behavior.

2ndly, why? Is he unable to debate or post any valid points? (DUH!!)

3rdly, why do the other supporters of Brinker think this is normal, and acceptable behavior? Is that how they have always behaved?

4thly, I sure hope I was imped the most today, since he knows that everyone, including Brinker, reads everything that I write.

Thoughts of a genius mind said...

good for you Honeybee. Don't you love it the way you have to delete certain posts.

185 dollars a year is a lot to pay for such sound advice. Not!

All bets are off on how far this correction will be if Hillary or Obama gets into office.

Mark

http://mark24609.blogspot.com/

R B said...

Larry Kudlow on his TV show seems to track closely with Bob Brinker on subjects like the direction of the economy and hence the direction of the market.
...and they are close associates/friends.

Honeybee said...

Thanks for your patience Mark, and everyone.

Yes, I agree that if either of the democrat candidates are elected, the market may not take it well...

How is that for an understatement? LOL!

Honeybee said...

R. B.

I did not know that Brinker and Kudlow were close friends/associates.

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when the two of them are talking about the stock market. 8^)

Honeybee said...

Mr.Pig,

You have some very interesting questions. However, I do not have the answers yet, but we are working on it.

StevieD said...

Bob Brinker has posted a special bulletin at bobbrinker.com for all subscribers. I for one will be buying the stock market in the S&P 1300 levels. If I were Kirk, I would be selling right now.

StevieD said...

On January 20th Brinker predicted there will be a low and that low would be retested a a few weeks later. So far both things have come true. Kirk said we have seen a correction this year. We have not yet seen a 20% decrease from the previous high back in October to the January 22 low. No correction has yet happened.

I also predict that this post will be deleted since I pointed out Kirk was wrong about the correction. I hope I am wrong.

R B said...

Most certainly Kirk is right about
oil and inflation.
I think he's been right for over
2 years now. Theres nothing like a
feller' whose right!

Kirk you owe me!