Sunday, February 3, 2008

Bob Brinker's Moneytalk Summary February 2, 3, 2008

Brief Summary, Commentary and Moneytalk Excerpts, February 2, 3, 2008:
I did not hear Bob Brinker talk about the stock market all weekend. Did I miss it? Did anyone hear him mention it?
Bob Brinker's opening monologue on Saturday began with him talking about the use of fiscal and monetary policies to control the U.S. economy, but he made no predictions about the future of economic growth -- that I could discern.

Brinker said: “What we have here is a two-pronged effort that is being delivered in the United States with reference to the U.S. economy. And a lot this goes right back to the legendary British economist, John Maynard Keynes.”
Brinker claims that he has talked about Keynesian economics many times on Moneytalk and definitely agrees that the federal government should take a pro-active fiscal-policy when the economy slows.
Brinker talked about the new “pro-active fiscal measures” that congress is working on which will include a rebate check that will be sent “to many” and will include a provision to allow Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac to buy larger mortgages. It will also include a provision to allow businesses to make large purchases this year and qualify for tax breaks. Brinker believes that the stimulus package is still “a work in progress,” but that it will be into the economy by the second quarter of 2008.
About this fiscal govenment-intervention policy Brinker said: “Now they did not just dream this up. This is classic Keynesian economic policy" and that is why it is so important to have a balanced budget during "normal times." Brinker went on to declare that balanced budget talk is not just "political pap, it’s a fundamental economic principle that is at the core of managing the U.S. economy—as Keynes would tell us." Instead, when these kinds of measures are needed, “Uncle Sam has to borrow a ton of money to help the economy through some rough times.”
Brinker said, "The blocks we have to play with, the blocks that we are given, with are deficit spending blocks.” Then he spent some time bashing the 2001-2006 congress for “spending us into oblivion." National debt is over $9Trillion—spent irresponsibly. For instance, prescription drugs for Medicare recipients, which was done on borrowed money, was not paid for and was “fiscally irresponsible.”

Then it was time to bash the Fed again, Brinker said: “Now here we are, the government is in a position where well-founded Keynesian principles tell us that it makes sense for them (congress) to participate along with the Fed in the monetary policy, and you see what the rates are doing – just as we said they had to right here on Moneytalk. We said rates have to go down. These guys are in an ivory tower. They have to get real. How many times do we have to say it? Well they are finally down out of their ivory tower now. They have the short-term rates down to 3%. They are finally getting the message and that’s a good thing. It took them long enough though."

Brinker summarized by pointing out that the congressional stimulus package to aid the slowing economy is (Keynesian) fiscal policy and the Fed lowering interest rates is the other prong, which is monetary policy.
The calls on Saturday were either so esoteric that they were of no interest to anyone but the caller, or they were about the same subjects that have been repeated ad nauseam for some time now.
Charlie Maxwell was Brinker’s guest speaker in hour three on Saturday.

Brinker's Sunday opening monologue was devoted entirely to political speculation and personal opinions. He gave a lengthy rundown on the latest poll numbers for the leading candidates.
Sunday, there were calls about CD’s, personal real estate questions, paying off mortgages, government health care, etc. This was followed by Brinker giving a report on political polls that he said “just keep rolling in” This seemed to prompt him to give more long-winded political-pontifications about which of the candidates will raise taxes and who is for or against the war in Iraq.
This was followed by a caller who was worried about having bought a Bond Index Fund three weeks ago. Brinker told him that “for crying out” he should just invest in laddered CD’s and not worry about NAV fluctuation in the funds.

Sorry folks, I didn’t hear the last couple of hours of the program today. But I strongly suspect that the words “stock market” were not heard – at least spoken by Bob Brinker.



princepro110 said...

Only caught the Kudlow call for the entire weekend........sounds like I didn't miss anything. I think Brinker uses a screener after the QQQ call. I have only called the program once and that was October 2000 when Hillary first ran for office. I told Bob she would win because she saw the economy as a major problem outside of NYC that her opponent would not come to grips with. She spent a lot of time learning the state and the problems outside of the city. Did she help us in Western NY................NOT REALLY!

jumpnjoey said...

He did not talk about the market because the whole rally last week was that Microsoft and Yahoo are going to merge. If you watched the market in 2000 - same pattern.

wejomerv said...

I enjoyed the show this week. I don’t need Bob to talk about the stock market every weekend. I was interested in hearing his opinions on the election and the money (tax, debt, health expenses) implications

StevieD said...

Marketimer came out Sunday night. Bob usually doesn't talk about his market forecasts on the first weekend of the month. That he saves for his paying customers.

No bull yet, S&P 500 only down sixteen or so percent on January 22 low. Kurt's crying about the portfolios shows someone who can't take such a decline and shouldn't be in the market.

jeffchristie said...

StevieD said...

'Marketimer came out Sunday night. Bob usually doesn't talk about his market forecasts on the first weekend of the month. That he saves for his paying customers.'

Steve you are correct. In this post over at SI Bob Brinker posting as Don Lane showed his utter contempt for those of us in his listening audience that aren't subscribers to his newsletter. Here is what he said:

To:Boca_PETE who wrote (3395)
From: mister topes Sunday, Feb 15, 1998 10:50 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 20900

Your comments are salient to say the least. Last year I counted the
weekends I was forced to endure the likes of William, the Earl of
Boredom, Flanagan and Neale, Did You Buy My Latest Book, Godfrey,
and the Motley, Greater than all, Fools. It came to a grand total
of nine weekends without The Brink's on air presence. Assuming his
new contract includes nine or ten weekends off, I would say the
odds of him being on vacation during a sell signal are very good
to excellent. Wouldn't it be neat to see Brinker issue a sell
signal while on vacation from radio, have his subscribers sellout
at or near the top, and then see the market collapse with all
the radio freeloaders left to fend for themselves when he returns
only to tell them the horse is out of the barn and they are on
their own! Would not surprise me in the least. Poetic justice!