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Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Brinker is Still Bullish, Recession Possible



  • Bob Brinker has readjusted his market-timing views since the first week in January. He has done away with his "mid-1400's" new money "all-in" buy-signal and recommends only dollar-cost-averaging into the market with new money. And he is busy looking for the "bottom" of this correction -- no doubt so he can issue a new buy signal. (His portfolios are still 100% invested.)
  • While putting the blame on Societe General for the stock market "debacle," Brinker remains bullish and believes the "bad news bears" are mistaken. However, he has pushed forward the time frame for his new high prediction of "into 1600's" into "late this year or in 2009" (this is down from 1650 which he predicted in October, November, 2007).
  • .
  • Conveniently, that is almost a two years forward-move for his goal post.
  • .
  • Brinker has also opened the door for a possible "brief and mild recession" during the first two quarters of 2008.
  • .


Will L. comments: 8^)

.
"Yes we know from experience that if Brinker's predictions for the market are not borne out by the facts and movement of the market, he 'changes the subject' --like the year he took off from discussing the stock market after the bone headed QQQ fiasco (which has never been closed out btw for up to 1/3 of an entire portfolio).
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Brinker obviously has been caught bloviating and seems to be totally clueless. His parlor games of naming buying points, like it is based on some great mathematical formula via that "timing model", have been embarassing for him.
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He now just has his fingers crossed (notice the shills all want to mitigate the damage in the market but using the Brinker alibi lingo "closing market basis"--the market was down 16.8% ) that the market doesn't drop more than 20%. He doesn't have a clue whether it will or not; nor does anyone else.
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If there is a bear market under his conditions, you will likely never hear him mention it. Anyone dispute that?
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If it is true that Brinker moved his "1600" forecast into 2009 as is reported here, that is quite a reminder to me of his handling of UTEK. He pounded the table for the stock and it tumbled--and when it was pointed out to him, he claimed in 97 "I never said it would go up now-- Utek is a 98 story". When it sucked in 98, Brinker said it was a 99 story. LOL
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Looks like soon we'll be predicting 1600 for "the next off year presidential election" in 2010. The whole timing silliness is a JOKE!"___Will L.

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21 comments:

Dan said...

Brinker is a fool.

Jody said...

Yes, I think this is only the first stage of the retreat of Brinker's timing model, as I predicted in a previous comment on this blog. Earnings forecasts have been steadily declining for a few months now, and they will continue to do so. In addition, corporations now have less cash with which to buy back shares, so there's less buying pressure to hold up the prices of a stock market that's paying historically low dividend yields. (less than 2%)

jean said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Kirk said...

"You are obviously not Dan G. ...He doesn't post at Facebook anymore though because Kirk insulted him. Good for Dan!"

Really? Is that the same DanG who invited Honey to a party then took back that invitation when some in the "Brinker Bot Club" objected to the invitation?

As for insults, Please tell me where I insulted Dan. I don't remember insulting Dan unless you mean my reply to his suggestion I delete the Brinker forum on facebook.

My POLITE reply was "If you don't like it, then don't read it."

If that is an insult, then so be it. I'd repeat the same "insulting" advice to anyone who recommends I censor people who complain about Brinker's "off the books" record such as

Estimate of Effect of Bob Brinker's
QQQQ advice on his Reported Model Portfolio Returns


But thanks for telling me what happened to Dan. I was wondering where he went. If what you say is true and he is the same that took back the invitation to a party, then I am not surprised he vanished without saying anything after my advice made him look rather silly for suggesting censorship of a forum he was a guest at.

StevieD said...

The censoring continues. This post won't last long! Bob predicted in his January bulletin that the market would retest the low of January before climbing higher. Guess he was right, again.

Pig said...

steevie-weevie, still whimpering, remarks:

"The censoring continues. This post won't last long!"

With as many ID's as you are using, what difference does it make? You'll just repost.

Why do you post comments from Brinker's copyrighted newsletter, anyway?

BTW, I left you some questions about your sheer fabrications about RIP, under your Bertie-baby ID from Feb 3rd. (Which you won't answer)

Honeybee said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
burt said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
jeffchristie said...

February 5, 2008 11:42 AM


StevieD said...
The censoring continues. This post won't last long! Bob predicted in his January bulletin that the market would retest the low of January before climbing higher. Guess he was right, again.


Now wait a minute here Steve. Last week I complemented you for figuring out how the Brinker SCAM works. You said the following:


February 2, 2008 6:14 AM


steve said...
jeffchristie,

Brinker said there may be another test of the low before going on to new highs in 2008.

He didn't PREDICT anything!

FIRST YOU SAY HE DIDN'T PREDICT ANYTHING NOW YOU SAY HE DID. I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO BELIEVE.

StevieD said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Honeybee said...

stevied,

You would not have ANY posts deleted from here if you didn't imp-others or mock, harrass, insult, demean or disparage me, my Blog or Kirk.

You can say anything you want to about Bob Brinker. I have never deleted anything you have posted about him. Stay within "fair use" and you will be fine.

Would it be asking too much to ask you to use only one alias?

jeffchristie said...

burt said...
Honeybee,

What's all this crap about you Dan and Kirk?

None of this is on topic and you deleted MY posts because you said they were not on topic.

Sorry burt but the crap about Honey Dan and Kirk is on topic. Dan invited Honey to his Bob Brinker Bash. Then he told her she wasn't welcome. This is a great example of how rude Brinker supporters can be to anyone who questions Brinker. Dan should be ashamed of himself for treating anyone this way.

Pig said...

Ms Honey asked Stevie:

"Would it be asking too much to ask you to use only one alias?"

(((ROAR)))

Would you like the long answer, or the short answer?

I would like to see Steve answer Jeff's question, about his (stevie's) answer that changed 180 degrees in 3 days. DUH?

Shills on the run.................indeed..

Dan said...

Brinker is a fool for thinking he can predict the future.

Hear Ye Hear Ye !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Send Me (the Great Egotistical saRcasTic Mr. BrinKer) your $185 for the MarKetTimEr NewSleTTer.

CriTcal MAss is what the Great OnE calls It. LOL

Jody said...

Can anyone recommend another blog on the web that discusses Brinker's newsletter? One where the comment section discusses things like market valuation, earnings forecasts, etc. would be ideal. Thanks-

Kirk said...

Jody asked:

"Can anyone recommend another blog on the web that discusses Brinker's newsletter? One where the comment section discusses things like market valuation, earnings forecasts, etc. would be ideal. Thanks-"

Yes, scroll down and click the join link to the Bob Brinker Discussion Forum on Facebook.

As of today that forum has 890 posts by 65 different people.

Facebook does a much better job at limiting multiple IDs and thus troublemakers from the "Brinker Entourage" so the discussions there have far fewer "issues."

jean said...
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jean said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
jean said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
jean said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Jody said...

Thanks Kirk - much appreciated!