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Sunday, February 10, 2008

Moneytalk Commentary February 9-10, 2008

Bob Brinker did not do Moneytalk this weekend. This is the 4th time that Bill Flanagan has replaced Brinker since the weekend before Christmas.
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Flanagan made the point that this was the worst week in Dow performance since March 2003 and he said: “I’m beginning to think that when I fill in for Bob, I’m kind of a negative indicator, but this week really was one we’d rather forgot………Ugly, ugly, ugly, as we watch our portfolios shrink.”
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Flanagan does not expect the market to change direction very soon -- "perhaps second, third, fourth quarter or even next year." He said, “But it’s not a very good time for sunny days on Wall Street.” However, unlike Bob Brinker, Bill Flanagan doesn't profess to be a market-timer.
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Renowned and entertaining Brinker-commentator, Will L. wrote the following:
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"As you know Brinker without explanation (and as far as I know never to be mentioned again) pulled a date in June 2006 out of his assets in the June 2007 Newsletter and proclaimed that the bear market ended on that June 06 day. Beyond silly of course --but look at the chart. From the time Brinker claims the secular bear market ended and the secular bull market began and today; you would have been better off in a money market fund.
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Now Brinker just weeks ago when the market was at it's high of the year was very bullish. When others were getting nervous in October, Brinker began to make fun of them. He called for highs in 1600s in 08 and encouraged a huge "go all in" gamble at 1450 on the S&P. He was BULLISH to the max. And curiously he was nearly back to his old boisterous self, Yammering at the "bad news bears", ragging on anyone who disagreed with his very bullish stance.
Well here we are at the weekend. If Brinker shows up today (Honeybee sez: he didn't) do you think he will:
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  • 1) Act as though the market is doing exactly as he predicted and there is no concern?
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  • 2) Continue saying the market future is "foggy" (LOL that's sure investable information isn't it?)
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  • 3) Blame the fed, or the greedy condo flippers or developers or hedge funds ---etc etc for this "exogenous event" that "noone" could have predicted? (Honeybee sez: don't forget the French "rogue" trader. LOL)
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Brinker I don't believe ever talks about his timing model these days. It's the biggest trough of hogswill (apologies to pig) anywhere. This "timing model" that said the market turned bullish in June 2006 and we are in a secular bull market since then? The timing model that issued a buy signal at 1380--after the market was at 1400 or so...and issued another buy signal weeks ago at mid 1400s? The s&p is at 1330 now. LOL Off about 15% from the extreme top.
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Now Brinker used to boast that his timing model was "designed" to call market bottoms within 3% of the final "closing low". If that were true--why would he not he be in cash? After all I believe Brinker claimed that only up to 10% corrections were "normal" market movement. Indeed wasn't Brinker hammering the "bad news bears" just a couple weeks ago? Foggy? Perhaps Old Foggy? At what point do people realize the emperor hasn't had a stitch on for years??"

23 comments:

yaetmo. said...

"At what point do people realize the emperor hasn't had a stitch on for years??"

I concur!

Cartoon - Not Bob but close enough: http://www.empirewire.com/images/naked.jpg

Honeybee said...

ROFLOL! Thank you for the laugh, Yaetmo.

We sure can use lots of those these days.

Mike said...

Anybody know what the alert said that came out today?

Kirk said...

"Anybody know what the alert said that came out today?"

Yes.


To me, it looks like he read post #575 posted at "Kirk's Market Thoughts" about 10 hours ago and agreed with the chart I posted.

What time did he post the bulletin?

jumpnjoey said...

Brinker is going to be bashing Hugo Chavez next.

All Chavez' fault.

mike said...

I finally found out what the alert said and it doesn't seem to have any relationship to Kirk's post.

Did anybody else read it?

Honeybee said...

Mike

I have read the bulletin, and I think it has a direct correlation to Kirk's post on Facebook.

mike said...

"I have read the bulletin, and I think it has a direct correlation to Kirk's post on Facebook."

LOL Honey, that's one of Kirk's bottom calls.

But did you see Bob Norton's post? It looks like he really did scoop Bob Brinker.

Honeybee said...

Mike said: "But did you see Bob Norton's post? It looks like he really did scoop Bob Brinker."

Yes, Bob Norton was right on, too...

Brinker may have made a mistake when he so rudely cancelled Norton's subscription because he didn't like what Norton was posting on Facebook. 8^)

mike said...

Honey, did you see what Alan Coleman posted after you were over at Suite 101?

...Not sure who's looking out for who, halochie . . But it's best to look out for yourself .

I figure Bob put out this bulletin instead of waiting for his next newsletter because he may have figured this buying opportinity may not be here later this year ... or not if this is the second leg down .


http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/425

Honeybee said...

Yes, Mike...allancoleman never has followed Brinker's market-timing advice.

He sat out of the market waiting for MOABO during the 90%+ gains and then just recently sunk a chunk of money into the stock market.

Honeybee said...

BTW Mike,

I wonder if you read Brinker and Kirk for comprehension.

Kirk posted a graph 8 hours before the bulletin that shows a "possible bottom" EXACTLY where Brinker later in the day said there was a potential bottom?
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Go back to Facebook and read what Kirk wrote again, then compare it to Brinker's "special" (LOL) bulletin.
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Honeybee said...

Amazingly, the website where over 3500 of my Bob Brinker Beehive posts were completely wiped out, and I was forbidden from starting any new Brinker thread, now allows Brinker's copyrighted material to be posted IMMEDIATELY after it's issued.

Brinker issued a special bulletin yesterday and allancoleman posted the following just a few hours later:
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1053. Feb 10, 2008 6:58 PM
» allancoleman - Bob Brinker bulletin
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Bob Brinker just issued a new bulletin giving a buy level for an outright buy on the S & P 500 instead of a dollar cost average approach for new money going into the stock market . Subscribers should check their email and log in for the bulletin or go to Bob Brinker's web site and register your email address for these bulletins .

-- posted by allancoleman

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Then allancoleman actually has the utter gall to say this:
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1057. Feb 11, 2008 7:40 AM

» allancoleman - Bob Brinker bulletin

In response to Bob Brinker bulletin posted by cpa61:
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Appreciate your post , cpa61 , and glad to see that you subscribe to
Brinker's newsletter and have access to his bulletins .
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It'll be all over the web anyway within a few weeks .


-- posted by allancoleman

February 11, 2008 8:12 AM

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mike said...

"I wonder if you read Brinker and Kirk for comprehension.

Kirk posted a graph 8 hours before the bulletin that shows a "possible bottom" EXACTLY where Brinker later in the day said there was a potential bottom?"

Maybe you're right Honey, but Kirk posts so many "possible bottoms" it's hard to keep track of them all. LOL 8)

Brinker's email alerts are few and far between and therefore I think folks would lend more credence than those than weekly bottom calls.

But that's just me.

Honeybee said...

Mike,

I am not going to allow you to LIE about Kirk here -- like you just did.

It is a blatantly FALSE that Kirk has called "so many" bottoms. MOF: the last one I recall was in October 2002 at the bottom.

Brinker missed that bottom, but got another chance at it in March, 2003.

So here is your first and last warning. Do NOT LIE about Kirk or anyone, or I will delete your post.

If you want to quote Kirk, do that, but provide a link to where you got the quote.

mike said...

You don't have to get so huffy Honey.

I don't have the time to go back and research all Kirk's "possible" bottom calls but I can assure you there have been many since "the last one I recall was in October 2002 at the bottom."

Henceforth, I will just copy Kirk's bottom calls over here as he makes them and I assume you will consider those posts to be on topic as it was originally brought up by Kirk and yourself.

Honeybee said...

Mike,

You may quote Kirk IF he is comparing himself to Brinker.

You may quote anything that Kirk says about Brinker.

You may NOT make Kirk the subject of this thread beyond those parameters.


Thanks for your cooperation.

marlene said...

"Maybe you're right Honey, but Kirk posts so many "possible bottoms" it's hard to keep track of them all. LOL 8)"

Mike, are you a Facebook member?

Kirk doesn't always call market bottoms and in fact just before he posted that chart he said in a post that he had no idea if the bottom was in or not.

I think Kirk was just saying that maybe the bottom was here...or maybe not.

Honeybee said...

Hi Marlene,

You are absolutely right. Thank you for setting the record straight.

Over the years, I have seen Kirk offer charts and possibilities (hope) of bottoms just like many others who are interested in TA.

I believe Mike's friend, DanG, does much more calling bottoms than Kirk does.

Honeybee said...

Jean...stay on topic, please.

If you have issues with the private brinkerbot club, take it up with them.

I don't kiss Brinker's ring and they don't like my objectivity about him, therefore, my membership was terminated after three sucker-punch invitations to join.

SB said...

Greetings all;
Readers here might find this interesting:

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

and

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Brinker/

(Please don't rip me if you have seen this before -- I'm new and just trying to play in the sandbox...)

Honeybee said...

Hi SB,
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You are welcome to play in my "sandbox."
8^)

Thank you for the great information!
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Honeybee said...

Mike...Please read Kirk's post again. He gave locations where he will discuss his own investing style with anyone who is interested.
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However, if you want to make comments on what Kirk said about Bob Brinker, feel free to do that on this thread.