May 2008 be a wonderful, blessed year for our nation, our families, and each reader is my prayer.
___Honeybee
Monday, December 31, 2007
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Bob Brinker and Bill Flanagan Market Commentary
Bill Flanagan filled in for Brinker on Moneytalk today, so it will be next year before we get an opportunity to hear Bob Brinker's 2007 stock market wrap-up -- if he decides to give one.
·
Here is an excerpt from Bill Flanagan's opening monologue today:
“Although it doesn’t look like the biggest cloud on Wall Street is about to dissipate easily or quickly. That being of course the biggest credit crisis brought on by the sub-prime mess. Nonetheless, here we are at the end of the year and it wasn’t all that bad all things considered. The Dow Jones Industrials with Monday left, year to date change, 7.24% to the good; S&P 500 4.24%; Nasdaq 100 19.93%; Russell 2000 off 2%; Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 up 4.59%.
.
With all the hand-wringing and all the headlines and all the scrambling and all of the worrying -- and let’s face it, the exposure of an extraordinary lack of very simple research on the part of a whole bunch of people, and an indifference I guess to what must have seemed at least to some folks as inevitable, the financials took it on the chin. And along with them an awful lot of homeowners who got sucked into mortgages that should never have been written in the first place. And we’ll have to deal with that mess for quite some time.” ___Bill Flanagan
.
.
Between March, 2003 and June, 2007, Brinker was short-term bullish, intermediate-term bullish, (1-3 years) and long-term (3-20 years) bearish. Reference:
.
July 4, 2003 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe that the U.S. stock market entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history is any guide investors will have to wait a very long time before they see that level materially exceeded. However a series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular bear market megatrend." (May, 2006, Brinker wrote: "We estimate the likely duration of this secular bear megatrend within a broad range of eight to twenty years, and we are now into year seven." )
Now it looks like Brinker is short-term bullish, intermediate-term bullish, (1-3 years) and long-term bullish (3-20 years): Reference:
.
June 2007 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 Index(1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006.........."
.
Since August, 2007, Bob Brinker has been saying that he rates the S&P 500 Index attractive for purchase in the mid-1400’s range, and that he expects the S&P 500 Index to trade in the 1600’s as we move forward.
.
And in September, 2007, Bob Brinker said that he expects the S&P 500 Index to register a series of new historic highs into next year.
.
Several times, on Moneytalk, Brinker has said that he sees no recesson "on the radar," and that he thinks the bad news bears are totally wrong.
Last time he was on Moneytalk, Brinker also said that he did not see a recession ahead, but rather slow economic growth.
·
Here is an excerpt from Bill Flanagan's opening monologue today:
“Although it doesn’t look like the biggest cloud on Wall Street is about to dissipate easily or quickly. That being of course the biggest credit crisis brought on by the sub-prime mess. Nonetheless, here we are at the end of the year and it wasn’t all that bad all things considered. The Dow Jones Industrials with Monday left, year to date change, 7.24% to the good; S&P 500 4.24%; Nasdaq 100 19.93%; Russell 2000 off 2%; Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 up 4.59%.
.
With all the hand-wringing and all the headlines and all the scrambling and all of the worrying -- and let’s face it, the exposure of an extraordinary lack of very simple research on the part of a whole bunch of people, and an indifference I guess to what must have seemed at least to some folks as inevitable, the financials took it on the chin. And along with them an awful lot of homeowners who got sucked into mortgages that should never have been written in the first place. And we’ll have to deal with that mess for quite some time.” ___Bill Flanagan
.
.
Between March, 2003 and June, 2007, Brinker was short-term bullish, intermediate-term bullish, (1-3 years) and long-term (3-20 years) bearish. Reference:
.
July 4, 2003 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe that the U.S. stock market entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history is any guide investors will have to wait a very long time before they see that level materially exceeded. However a series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular bear market megatrend." (May, 2006, Brinker wrote: "We estimate the likely duration of this secular bear megatrend within a broad range of eight to twenty years, and we are now into year seven." )
Now it looks like Brinker is short-term bullish, intermediate-term bullish, (1-3 years) and long-term bullish (3-20 years): Reference:
.
June 2007 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 Index(1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006.........."
.
Since August, 2007, Bob Brinker has been saying that he rates the S&P 500 Index attractive for purchase in the mid-1400’s range, and that he expects the S&P 500 Index to trade in the 1600’s as we move forward.
.
And in September, 2007, Bob Brinker said that he expects the S&P 500 Index to register a series of new historic highs into next year.
.
Several times, on Moneytalk, Brinker has said that he sees no recesson "on the radar," and that he thinks the bad news bears are totally wrong.
Last time he was on Moneytalk, Brinker also said that he did not see a recession ahead, but rather slow economic growth.
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