Brinker's Inconsistent Market Analysis

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It is wise to be careful about trusting Bob Brinker to be consistent or to maintain continuity in his stock market timing prognostications. He can change on a dime, and never look back -- leaving his listeners and subscribers holding the bag.
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June, 2007, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off- presidential election year correction."
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Here is what Bob Brinker said just the month before he now claims the "secular bear megatrend" ended:
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May 2006, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said, "The current cyclical bull market, which in our view is unusual in terms of its length, has had to battle the headwinds of the secular bear megatrend that began in the first quarter of Year 2000. ...........by definition, the secular bear megatrend will continue as long as the S&P 500 Index is unable to achieve a significant breakthrough of its March, 2000 historic high. We estimate the likely duration of this secular bear megatrend within a broad range of eight to twenty years, and we are now into year seven."
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Please note that Brinker is documented as saying that the secular bear would not end until the S&P 500 Index had gone above the March 2000 closing high by at least 5 to 10%.
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Here is an excerpt from Moneytalk. Bob Brinker told a caller this in February, 2007:
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"....But what we do know is within secular trends there are no cases where a secular trend has gone beyond the previous peak by more than, by more than 10%. It's never happened, so I think it's fair to say that until that happens, the secular trend is intact.........Now the secular trend that began in year 2000 when the S&P was up in the 1500s, awww, that remains intact. The S&P 500 Index - and this is measured by the Index itself - has not gone above the prior high of 1527 close. In fact, in remains in the mid-1400s at this point. In order for it to move beyond an existing secular trend, such as the one we've had the past seven years, you would have to exceed it, I would think, by at least 10%........."
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What scared Brinker off of the secular bear scenario? It's likely that it was when the Dow and S&P broke though the old highs by a few percentage points. Brinker probably thought the indexes would continue to make gains faster than they have in the remainder of this year.
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But one has to wonder why he has never told Moneytalk listeners about this change in his stock market analysis....

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