Samule Mistaken About What Bob Brinker "Always" Said

(A friendly reminder that only on-topic comments will be allowed on this Blog.)

Samule said: “Bob always said nobody could accurately call a secular bear market until it was over. He also always said he didn't have a crystal ball.”

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Greetings Samule and welcome to Honey’s Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz Blog.

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You are correct that Bob Brinker has “always” said that he didn’t have a crystal ball, but you are certainly "wrong" when you say that he “always said nobody could accurately call a secular bear market.”

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I can prove that Bob Brinker, himself, claimed to call the beginning of a secular bear market—right down to the exact day and market level. And then Brinker declared the very month that a secular bear megatrend ended.

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With the Dow at 8506.62 and S&P at 884.66, Bob Brinker begins the August 2002 Marketimer with this proclamation:

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“In our view, the U.S. stock market entered a secular bear market in the first quarter of year 2000. The benchmark starting points for this secular bear are:

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index: 1527.46 = March 24, 2000

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11722.98 = January 14, 2000

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In the September 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker described exactly how a secular bear megatrend should play out. Brinker said: “.........We believe the ongoing secular megatrend we are now experiencing will see a succession of cyclical bull and bear markets lasting approximately one-to-three years each."

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It was in May 2006, just one month before he now claims the secular bear market ended, that Brinker told us that we were in “year seven of a secular bear megatrend” and that he estimated it would have a duration of “eight to twenty years.”

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Samule…here is what Bob Brinker told a Moneytalk caller about the secular bear market in February 2007. Does this sound like Brinker is saying that NOONE can call a secular bear megatrend?

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Excerpt of Brinker's Moneytalk reply to Peter:

“But what we do know is within secular trends there are no cases where a secular trend has gone beyond the previous peak by more than, by more than 10%. It's never happened, so I think it's fair to say that until that happens, the secular trend is intact."
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Now the secular trend that began in year 2000 when the S&P was up in the 1500s, awww, that remains intact. The S&P 500 Index - and this is measured by the Index itself - has not gone above the prior high of 1527 close. In fact, in remains in the mid-1400s at this point. In order for it to move beyond an existing secular trend, such as the one we've had the past seven years, you would have to exceed it, I would think, by at least 10%. There are many cases, Peter, where we have exceeded it in the single digits. There are many cases, for example, go back to 1966-1982-that was a secular bear trend. And there were many cases during that trend, where the Index exceeded the prior cyclical bull market high during that secular trend by let's say, 4%, 5%, 6%, but there were no cases where it was exceeded by 10% or more. So for now, the secular trend remains intact because the S&P has been unable to exceed the prior high of 1527 by anything close to 10%.......”

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Then in June 2007 issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker (seemingly in passing) announced that the secular bear market had ended A YEAR EARLIER when he said:

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"In our view, the……….secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006…….."

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Samule also said: “I think the important thing to remember here is that no asset allocation changes were made. No recommendations were made based on the prospect of a secular bear market. It didn't really matter one way or another.”

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Samule…you are indeed correct that Bob Brinker made no asset allocation changes as a result of his secular bear megatrend prognostications. However, is there any doubt that Brinker snagged a lot of subscription renewals as a direct result of that impending return of that big mega-bear?

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And Samule… are you aware that there are people who missed out on a lot of stock market gains since March 2003 because they were overly cautious or waiting for MOABO or the return of the bear?

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Samule said: “David Korn, Kirk Lindstrom and others say they have figured out Brinker's model yet none of them ever refuted the prospect of a secular bear market.”

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I'm very sorry Samule, but you are “wrong” again. Kirk has clearly stated that he believes that the secular bull market (which started in 1982) never ended. Kirk correctly believes that the market simply went through a cyclical bear between March 2000 and October 2002.

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Thank you for your comments Samule...I love nothing more than setting Bob Brinker's record straight, but I always want to be perfectly accurate when I present my facts. Of course, when I interject my opinions, that is just what it is--opinion.

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For instance, I think that the reason Bob Brinker "ended" his so-called secular bear market a year ago and has been so quiet about it (never mentioned it once on Moneytalk), is because he is so very BULLISH on the market right now--and obviously, the old 2000 highs had already been taken out on both the S&P and on the Dow.
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So the stock market appeared to have Brinker between a "rock and a hard place," and I believe that Brinker saw that he had been wrong all along about the secular bear, and rather than just say so (which is not in his nature), he simply declared it over.
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That's my 2-cents worth. .....Honeybee 8^)