Saturday, September 29, 2007 Bob Brinker’s Excerpts and Moneytalk Commentary

Please note: I will post a brief summary and commentary about the remainder of the program after tomorrow's program has aired. Here are some excerpts from one of Brinker's monologues today:

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Today Bob Brinker said: “We commented earlier about how the bad news bears were shouting fire in a crowded market a month ago, telling people, oh look out for this market, oh brother, things are really going to get bad and here comes September and you know what that means, and all this NONSENSE that the bad news bears were spouting a month ago during that short-term correction we saw that was nothing more than a buying opportunity. That’s exactly, exactly what it was, and it’s just amazing the way these people spout this nonsense.”

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*Marketimer, July, 2003, Bob Brinker said: “We believe that the U.S. stock market entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and Poor’s 500 Index close of 1527.46............ a series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular bear market megatrend.” ……………..”

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Today Bob Brinker said: “And of course the recession forecast. We’re not having a recession. There’s no probability of a recession in here, and yet a month ago we were getting this constant stream of recession forecasts. Even people like Alan Greenspan out saying, oh you know, today the percentage of a recession is “Y” then change it tomorrow and the next day -- just absolute nonsense.”

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*Marketimer, November 3, 2006, Bob Brinker said: “We regard this cyclical bull market as an outlier in terms of its unusually long durations.”

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Today Bob Brinker said: “It’s just amazing, you know. It never seems to end. And why is it that every time we have a short-term correction in the market, we get these bad news bears shouting their stories of Armageddon? I mean, they are wrong so often. Do you realize that the bad news bears have been wrong for the last 4 ½ years, going back to March of 2003. The S&P was setting in around 800 when we issued our buy signal on March 11, 2003 – around 800 on the S&P. Now where is it, 1526.75 – throw in the dividends up close to 100%.”

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*Marketimer May, 2006 Bob Brinker said: "The current cyclical bull market, which in our view is unusual in terms of its length, has had to battle the headwinds of the secular bear megatrend that began in the first quarter of Year 2000. ...........We estimate the likely duration of this secular bear megatrend within a broad range of eight to twenty years, and we are now into year seven."

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Today Bob Brinker said: “And you know all the way up – all the way up, the bad news bears have been there and they get loudest whenever there is a short-term correction. We’ve had several short-term corrections of less than 10% in all cases, but we’ve had several and every time it happens, these bad news bears start trying to scare everybody half to death. And you know, they do scare people and force people to make bad decisions. They force people to panic out for no reason.”

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*Marketimer March 2003, Bob Brinker said: “……investors should remember that we are in a secular bear market megatrend. We estimate the probable duration of this secular bear trend at 8-20 years based on historical experience.

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Today Bob Brinker said: “I mean, in this last buying opportunity that we saw down in the mid-1400s area, believe it or not there were people selling out of the market because they were scared. Yeah, it’s true. They sold out of the market because they were scared. What were they scared of? Well maybe they were scared because the bad news bears were telling them to look out for September. Well, here’s the number. Total return in the stock market, S&P, September up 3.7%. Ha, not much to be scared about there, is there? Never ceases to amaze me.”

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*Marketimer, June 2004, Bob Brinker said: “It is our view that a new secular bear megatrend commenced in the first quarter of Year 2000, and that we are now in the fifth year of this new megatrend.”

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Here are some Moneytalk comments by David Korn from February (2007). David Korn wrote:
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David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2007 (begininvesting.com)
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"February 3-4, 2007 Newsletter

BOB BRINKER'S LONG TERM STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

Caller: This caller asked Bob how he handles cyclical markets within the longer term secular markets and what level he thought the S&P 500 would go to before the bear market arrives. Bob said he hasn't put a final number on where the S&P 500 will go to and that is something he evaluates on a continuous basis in his newsletter. However, Bob said that what we do know is that within secular trends, there are no cases where a trend has gone beyond the previous peak by more than 10%. That has never happened and so until it happens, Bob said the secular trend is intact.

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EC: When the bear market came in 2000-2002, Bob said he would stay with his forecast of a secular bear market unless the market exceeded its prior high by 5%. Today's statement marks a change in that Bob now says the new highs must be breached by 10%. Perhaps Bob did more study of secular markets to come up with this number. Whatever the case, Bob remains convinced that the secular bear market is still here."

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Here is what Brinker told a Moneytalk caller in February 2007: “Now the secular trend that began in year 2000 when the S&P was up in the 1500s, awww, that remains intact.”

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Bob Brinker has never informed the Moneytalk audience that in the June 2007 issue of his newsletter he said that the “secular bear market megatrend” had ended in June 2006, a whole year ago!

Honeybee sez: Changing one's mind or realizing one is mistaken (as Brinker was about the secular bear megatrend) is perfectly acceptable. But inferring to thousands of Moneytalk listeners that it never happened is not acceptable, in my opinion.
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Bob Brinker is misleading listeners who, unless they are Marketimer subscribers, have every reason to think that Brinker believes the market is still in a cyclical bull cycle in a very long secular bear trend.

Click Chart to see it full sized